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Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change
BACKGROUND Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem. OBJECTIVE To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the...
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Published in: | Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz 2020-07, Vol.113 (1) |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article |
Language: | English |
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | Get full text |
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Summary: | BACKGROUND Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be
interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of
Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging
problem. OBJECTIVE To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it
is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and
correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate
change. METHODS Potential distribution models of Triatoma infestans
and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machinelearning
method. FINDINGS Climate change appears to play a major role in the
reemergence of Chagas' disease and T. infestans in Chile. The
distribution of both T. infestans and Chagas' disease correlated
with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the driest
month. The overlap of Chagas' disease and T. infestans
distribution areas was high. The distribution of T. infestans, under
two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in
suitable areas. MAIN CONCLUSION The impact of temperature and
precipitation on the distribution of T. infestans, as shown by the
models, indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current
control measures, including T. infestanscontrol campaigns, should be
maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding
sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings. |
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ISSN: | 1678-8060 |