OIL AND FOOD PRICE BEFORE AND DURING COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN NIGERIA: A NON-LINEAR ARDL APPROACH

This paper analyzes the relationship between food and oil prices in Nigeria before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, using monthly data from January 2018 to December 2021. The ARDL and NARDL models are applied to estimate the symmetry and asymmetric relationship that exists in food price behavior. T...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Studia Universitatis Vasile Goldiş Arad. Seria ştiinţe economice 2024-06, Vol.34 (2), p.32-56
Main Authors: Yusuf, Muhammad-Bashir Owolabi, Salau, Tunde Jibril, Adeiza, Adams
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture
ARDL
Asymmetry
Civil society
Cointegration analysis
Commodity prices
Costs
COVID-19
D12
Disease transmission
Economy
Food
Food price
Food price behaviour
Food prices
Foreign exchange rates
Inflation
L66
Labor unions
Macroeconomics
Micro-Economics
Monetary policy
NARDL
Nigeria
Nutrition
O13
Oil price
Pandemics
Petroleum
Price increases
Prices
Subsidies
Symmetry
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Summary:This paper analyzes the relationship between food and oil prices in Nigeria before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, using monthly data from January 2018 to December 2021. The ARDL and NARDL models are applied to estimate the symmetry and asymmetric relationship that exists in food price behavior. The NARDL confirms the presence of asymmetries, and the bound test affirms the co-integration and long-run relationship among the variables. In the long run, there is a significant positive relation between oil price increases and food prices, but the long-run impact of oil price reductions on food prices is not significant. In the short run, only increases in oil prices exert a significant influence on food prices, while decreases in oil prices do not. Furthermore, the COVID-19 period exerts a positive and significant impact on food prices, while COVID-19 cases do not influence food prices in Nigeria.
ISSN:1584-2339
2285-3065
2285-3065
DOI:10.2478/sues-2024-0007