Projection of health service consumption and patient payment revenues in central and eastern European countries using system dynamics modeling

Questions concerning the use of evidence in policy making increasingly attract the interest of both policymakers and researchers. It is broadly recognized that the development of integrated policy frameworks can be facilitated by the use of quantitative analytical methods, such as system modeling, c...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Society and economy 2012-06, Vol.34 (2), p.359-379
Main Authors: Pavlova, Milena, Arsenijevic, Jelena, Groot, Wim, van Merode, Godefridus G
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Computer simulation
Consumption
Economic models
Estimates
Expenditures
Fees & charges
Gross domestic product
Health and medicine and law
Health care payments
Health care policy
Health expenditures
Health services
Health services utilization
Hospital admissions
Input data
Life sciences
Management and complex organizations
Medical research
Medicine
Methods
Modeling
Patients
Payments
Research universities
Social development
Society
Studies
Supranational / Global Economy
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Questions concerning the use of evidence in policy making increasingly attract the interest of both policymakers and researchers. It is broadly recognized that the development of integrated policy frameworks can be facilitated by the use of quantitative analytical methods, such as system modeling, computer simulation, trend analysis, and scenario analysis. Although policy projections based on these methods cannot provide direct solutions to policy problems, they can help to minimize the undesirable effects of a policy choice. This paper presents the concept design of a policy projection tool that estimates the macro-level effects of patient charges. In particular, the paper explores the usefulness of system dynamics modeling for the development of the projection tool. The overall objective of the policy projection tool is to generate evidence relevant for the analysis of patient payment policies. Based on the concept projection tool, a simplified consumption-revenue module is developed for the estimation of the annual health care consumption and the revenue from patient payments during one year. The module is applied to data from six Central and Eastern European countries to test its accuracy. The results from the module testing provide directions for further modeling steps.
ISSN:1588-9726
1588-970X
DOI:10.1556/SocEc.34.2012.2.10