How to Estimate Security – Problem Analysis

• Published in: Security Dimensions. International and National Studies 2020-06, Vol.33 (33), p.217-240
• Main Author: Pilarski, Grzegorz
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Security and defense
• ISSN: 2353-7000
• DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.2678

Background: The article presents a method of estimating the security level which indicates how probable it is for a phenomenon to occur. Objectives: The author attempts to answer the question: How do we estimate security? Decision makers usually need percentage showing the probability of an incident taking place in the future. This information is needed in the first place, later decision makers can use more descriptive information. Methods: The research problem concerns the assessment of security using the estimation method. Depicting security in numbers is difficult, thus the descriptive method is also usually applied. The estimation method facilitates the assessment. It is helpful since it is partly done by calculation and partly by guessing or approximation. Based on a case study analysing whether a terrorist attack may occur, the author also used tools such as averaging expert predictions, scenario analysis and risk analysis. Results: This article provides a view on forecasting security, which results in a method of estimating the level of security. Conclusions: The author presents an approach which allows to initially estimate the security level of the analyzed phenomenon in a relatively short period of time.