Climate Simulation and Future the Water Vapor Budget Projection of Precipitation and in the Haihe River Basin

• Published in: 气象学报：英文版 2012, Vol.26 (3), p.345-361
• Main Author: 李巧萍 丁一汇
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 地表气温; 年代际变化; 政府间气候变化专门委员会; 气候模拟; 水蒸汽; 海河流域; 降水量; 预算
• ISSN: 0894-0525

The climatological characteristics of precipitation （HRB） are analyzed using daily observations at 740 and the water vapor budget in the Haihe River basin stations in China in 1951 2007 and the 4-time daily ERA40 reanalysis data in 1958 2001. The results show that precipitation and surface air temperature present significant interannual and interdecadal variability, with cold and wet conditions before the 1970s but warm and dry conditions after the 1980s. Precipitation has reduced substantially since the 1990s, with a continued increase of surface air temperature. The total column water vapor has also reduced remarkably since the late 1970s. The multi-model ensemble from the Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） has capably simulated the 20th century climate features and successfully reproduced the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature. Unfortunately, the models do not reproduce the interdecadal changes. Based on these results, future projections of the climate in the HRB are discussed under the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） B1, A1B, and A2. The results show that precipitation is expected to increase in the 21st century, with substantial interannual fluctuations relative to the models＇ baseline climatology. A weak increasing trend in precipitation is projected before the 2040s, followed by an abrupt increase after the 2040s, especially in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase by 10% 18% by the end of the 21st century. Due to the persistent warming of surface air temperature, water vapor content in the lower troposphere is projected to increase. Relative humidity will decrease in the mid-lower troposphere but increase in the upper troposphere. On the other hand, precipitation minus evaporation remains positive results, the HRB region is expected to get wetter throughout the 21st century. Based on these projection in the 21st century due to global warming.