NPV risk simulation of an open pit gold mine project under the O＇Hara cost model by using GAs

This paper analyzes an open pit gold mine project based on the O＇Hara cost model. Hypothetical data is proposed based on different authors that have studied open pit gold projects, and variations are proposed according to the probability distributions associated to key variables affecting the NPV, l...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:矿业科学技术学报：英文版 2017, Vol.27 (3), p.557-565
Main Author: Franco-Sepulveda Giovanni Campuzano Carlos Pineda Cindy
Format: Article
Language:English
Online Access:Get full text
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Summary:This paper analyzes an open pit gold mine project based on the O＇Hara cost model. Hypothetical data is proposed based on different authors that have studied open pit gold projects, and variations are proposed according to the probability distributions associated to key variables affecting the NPV, like production level, ore grade, price of ore, and others, so as to see what if, in a gold open pit mine project of B000 metric tons per day of ore. Two case scenarios were analyzed to simulate the NPV, one where there is low cer- tainty data available, and the other where the information available is of high certainty. Results based on genetic algorithm metaheuristic simulations, which combine basically Montecarlo simulations provided by the Palisade Risk software, the O＇Hara cost model, net smelter return and financial analysis tools offered by Excel are reported, in order to determine to which variables of the project is more sensitive the NPV.
ISSN:2095-2686