Designing Flexible Offshore Construction Vessels to Handle Future Uncertainty

• Main Author: Pettersen, Sigurd Solheim
• Format: Dissertation
• Language: English
• Subjects: Marin teknikk, Marin prosjektering

This thesis investigates how uncertainty in marine systems design can be handled through designing more flexible vessels. For multi-functional vessels not mainly doing transportation tasks, such as offshore construction vessels, there is a large potential in being able to take contracts not necessarily accounted for in the initial specification. Thus, there is a need to identify and value functional flexibility in offshore construction vessel designs, and to evaluate the existing methodologies for decision making under uncertainty that can be applied. We want to evaluate modifications of the vessel, through removing obsolete systems and installing systems adhering to current requirements. The primary research question for the thesis is therefore: How do we identify and value functional flexibility in offshore construction vessel designs, subject to uncertain future operating contexts? Secondary, the thesis also seeks to answer an additional research question: Which methodologies exist for decision making under uncertainty that can be successfully applied in marine systems design, and how do they guide stakeholders towards great decisions? We argue that there are several paradigms for decision making that may be applied, each emphasizing different aspects of uncertainty and the notion of value. Novel systems engineering methods applied, such as Epoch-Era Analysis and the Responsive Systems Comparison method has a wide approach to value, accounting for stakeholder perception and context under uncertainty. The Responsive Systems Comparison method can be applied as a complete design methodology under uncertainty. Real Options Analysis fromthe financial paradigm treats value in a solely monetary way, and represents techniques for valuing flexibility. However, applying financial techniques in engineering systems poses a challenge. Monte Carlo Simulation solves some of the issues with real options in systems, but not the issue of actually identifying what system elements constitute interesting real options. For this, we introduce rules for transitioning between alternative concepts in the design space. To test whether the Responsive Systems Comparison method and the RealOptions Analysis with Monte Carlo Simulation are good approaches to answering the research questions, we develop a case study. The case study concerns an offshore construction vessel that can compete in four markets with developing contract requirements and economic uncertainty. The aim is to enab