On the Risk of a Fall in Household Consumption in Norway

This paper utilises household level data from administrative registers to illustrate that Norwegian households' high debt-to-income and loan-to-value ratios could prompt an increase in household saving in the event of a rise in interest rates and/or a fall in house prices. Both higher direct ne...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Staff Memo 2014
Main Author: Vatne, Bjørn Helge
Format: Article
Language:English
Online Access:Request full text
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Summary:This paper utilises household level data from administrative registers to illustrate that Norwegian households' high debt-to-income and loan-to-value ratios could prompt an increase in household saving in the event of a rise in interest rates and/or a fall in house prices. Both higher direct net interest expenses and higher principal payments could displace consumption. The effect will depend on the financial situation of each household. If we assume a 3 percentage point increase in interest rates and a 30 percent fall in house prices, the calculations indicate that total household income available for consumption could fall by as much as 8 percent.