Asymmetric response and interaction of U.S. and local news in financial markets

• Published in: Applied stochastic models in business and industry 2005-05, Vol.21 (3), p.273-288
• Main Authors: Chen, Cathy W. S., So, Mike K. P., Gerlach, Richard H.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: asymmetric mean reversion; asymmetric volatility model; Bayesian; double threshold GARCH models; GJR-GARCH models; leverage effect; Markov chain Monte Carlo method; stock markets
• ISSN: 1524-1904; 1526-4025
• DOI: 10.1002/asmb.600

This paper examines the extent to which financial returns on market indices exhibit mean and volatility asymmetries, as a response to past information from both the U.S. market and the local market itself. In particular, we wish to assess the asymmetric effect of a combination of local and U.S. market news on volatility. To the best of the authors knowledge, this joint effect has not been considered previously. We propose a double threshold non‐linear heteroscedastic model, combined with a GJR‐GARCH effect in the conditional volatility equation, to capture jointly both mean and volatility asymmetric behaviours and the interactive effect of U.S. and local market news. In an application to five major international market indices, clear evidence of threshold non‐linearity is discovered, supporting the hypothesis of an uneven mean‐reverting pattern and volatility asymmetry, both in reaction to U.S. market news and news from the local market itself. Significant, but somewhat different, interactive effects between local and U.S. news are observed in all markets. An asymmetric pattern in the exogenous relationship between the local market and the U.S. market is also found. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.