Tourism-led Growth Revisited for Spain: Causality, Business Cycles and Structural Breaks

This paper is aimed to test the causality relationship between the cycles of tourism and economic development for the case of Spain using quarterly time‐series data on gross domestic product, the number of nights spent in Spanish tourist accommodations and real exchange rates from 1980 to 2013. A di...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The international journal of tourism research 2016-01, Vol.18 (1), p.39-51
Main Authors: Mérida, Adrian, Golpe, Antonio A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
business cycles
causality
GDP
real exchange rate
Spain
structural breaks
tourism
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Summary:This paper is aimed to test the causality relationship between the cycles of tourism and economic development for the case of Spain using quarterly time‐series data on gross domestic product, the number of nights spent in Spanish tourist accommodations and real exchange rates from 1980 to 2013. A distinction between nights spent by foreign and national tourists is also made. Although no evidence of causality is found on preliminary results, structural breaks affecting the relationships between the variables are detected. Causality from economic growth towards tourist activity is found until 1985. Results also confirm bidirectional causality from 2000 onwards. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
ISSN:1099-2340
1522-1970
DOI:10.1002/jtr.2031