From the Kuiper Belt to Jupiter-Family Comets: The Spatial Distribution of Ecliptic Comets

• Published in: Icarus (New York, N.Y. 1962) N.Y. 1962), 1997-05, Vol.127 (1), p.13-32
• Main Authors: Levison, Harold F., Duncan, Martin J.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• ISSN: 0019-1035; 1090-2643
• DOI: 10.1006/icar.1996.5637

We present numerical orbital integrations of thousands of massless particles as they evolve from Neptune-encountering orbits in the Kuiper belt for up to 1 Gyr or until they either impact a massive body or are ejected from the Solar System. The median dynamical lifetime of these objects is 4.5 × 10 7years. We found that about 30% of these objects became visible comets. (We refer to a comet with perihelion distance 2), of sizes consistent with this absolute magnitude, that originated in the Kuiper belt. This conclusion assumes that the rate of objects leaving the Kuiper belt has remained approximately constant over the history of the Solar System. We calculate the orbital distribution of this population and show that ∼90% are beyond the orbit of Neptune at any given time. In addition, we calculate the impact rates of these objects onto the planets. We find that a JFC impact onto Jupiter happens approximately once every 400 years and one on the Earth should occur once every 13 million years.