The Congressional Calendar and Stock Market Performance

This study reports on the existence of a curious calendar effect--a relationship between stock market performance and the schedule of the U.S. Congress. Almost the entire advance in the market since 1897 corresponds to the periods when Congress is in recess. This is an impressive result, given that...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Financial services review (Greenwich, Conn.) Conn.), 1997-03, Vol.6 (1), p.19-25
Main Authors: Lamb, Reinhold P., Ma, K.C., Pace, R. Daniel, Kennedy, William F.
Format: Article
Language:English
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Summary:This study reports on the existence of a curious calendar effect--a relationship between stock market performance and the schedule of the U.S. Congress. Almost the entire advance in the market since 1897 corresponds to the periods when Congress is in recess. This is an impressive result, given that Congress is in recess about half as long as in sesskm. Furthermore, average daily returns when Congress is not meeting are almost thirteen times greater than when Congress is in session. Throughout the year, cumulative returns during recess are eight times that experienced while Congress is in session.
ISSN:1873-5673
1057-0810
DOI:10.1016/S1057-0810(97)90029-9