Prediction of sunspot numbers in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23

The method proposed by Hathaway et al. [SoPh 151 (1994) 177] was employed to predict the magnitude of sunspot activities in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23, based on the monthly averages of sunspot number and the smoothed monthly averages of sunspot number, respectively. Our results show that:...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:New astronomy 2003-07, Vol.8 (5), p.449-456
Main Authors: Zhan, Lasheng, Zhao, Haijuan, Liang, Hongfei
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Sun: activity
Sun: general
Sunspots
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Summary:The method proposed by Hathaway et al. [SoPh 151 (1994) 177] was employed to predict the magnitude of sunspot activities in the declining phase of solar Cycle 23, based on the monthly averages of sunspot number and the smoothed monthly averages of sunspot number, respectively. Our results show that: (1) the application of smoothed monthly averages of sunspot number gives better and less fluctuating (or more stable) predictions of sunspot activity at the early stage of the cycle than predictions based on monthly averages of sunspot number, and (2) a starting date of October 1996 works better than a starting date of May 1996 for Cycle 23. Both the validity and advantage of Hathaway et al.’s [SoPh 151 (1994) 177] approach are discussed in detail.
ISSN:1384-1076
1384-1092
DOI:10.1016/S1384-1076(02)00230-0