Uncertainty quantification on advanced fuel cycle scenario simulations applying local and global methods

• Published in: Annals of nuclear energy 2019-02, Vol.124, p.349-356
• Main Authors: Skarbeli, A.V., Álvarez-Velarde, F.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Advanced fuel cycle; Sensitivity coefficients; Sobol indices; Transmutation; Uncertainty quantification
• ISSN: 0306-4549; 1873-2100
• DOI: 10.1016/j.anucene.2018.10.018

•Possibility of waste minimization and stabilization of transuranic inventories.•Complementarity of local and global methods for uncertainty quantification.•Few input parameters impact on the uncertainty of plutonium and minor actinides masses.•Lineal dependence on input parameters. A European fuel cycle scenario based on PATEROS where the minimization and the posterior stabilization of the TRU inventory is the main goal, has been studied in terms of uncertainty propagation of the input parameters with the fuel cycle transition scenario TR_EVOL code. Local and global sensitivity methods (namely sensitivity coefficients and Sobol decomposition of variance) were used in a complementary way in order to overcome the limitations of each technique. Those parameters with the largest impact in terms of uncertainty quantification are presented for the most relevant outputs in this kind of scenarios. It was found that the UOX thermal efficiency is the variable with the highest impact in the Pu stocks, while for the MA stocks the isotopic composition of the ADS fuel plays the relevant role. Neither significant interactions nor high order effects were found over the selected input parameters, indicating that for this scenario, the response model can be approximated by a multivariable linear function.