A general modeling framework to evaluate energy, economy, land-use and GHG emissions nexus for bioenergy exploitation

• Published in: Applied energy 2016-09, Vol.178, p.223-249
• Main Authors: Gonzalez-Salazar, Miguel Angel, Venturini, Mauro, Poganietz, Witold-Roger, Finkenrath, Matthias, Kirsten, Trevor, Acevedo, Helmer, Spina, Pier Ruggero
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Biomass; Emissions; Energy policy; Land use; Roadmap; Scenario analysis
• ISSN: 0306-2619; 1872-9118
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.06.039

•The modeling framework addresses the energy, economy, emissions and land use nexus.•Integration of technology roadmapping & scenario analysis for developing countries.•Impacts of an accelerated deployment of bioenergy in Colombia until 2030.•In Colombia, priority is biomethane production, power generation & CHP.•By 2030, bioenergy alone will reduce emissions maximum 10% relative to baseline. This paper presents a modeling framework to address the energy, economy, emissions and land use nexus when exploiting bioenergy in developing countries. The modeling framework combines a qualitative and a quantitative element. The qualitative element integrates two components: (1) technology roadmapping to identify long-term technology targets through expert judgment and (2) scenario analysis to investigate different future storylines. The quantitative element comprises four integrated tools, namely the energy system model (ESM), the land use and trade model (LUTM), an economic model, and an external climate model. An overview of the modeling framework, scenario analysis, structure of the models, modeling techniques, mathematical formulations and assumptions is presented and discussed. The modeling framework is applied to the particular context of Colombia, as a case study of a developing country with large bioenergy potential. In this study case, the impacts that an accelerated deployment of bioenergy technologies might cause on the energy demand and supply, emissions and land use until 2030 are evaluated. Results suggest that a plan to exploit bioenergy in Colombia should prioritize the deployment of technologies for biomethane production, power generation & CHP, which can reduce more GHG emissions and more emissions per incremental hectare of land than first-generation biofuels. Moreover, while the share of bioenergy in the primary energy demand decreases in all the analyzed scenarios, it is possible to envision significant increases in the share of bioenergy in road transport energy demand, power generation and natural gas supply for scenarios implementing roadmap goals. In addition, impacts of El Niño oscillation on the dependence of hydro for power generation can be partly mitigated by exploiting the complementarity of hydro and bioenergy, which might result in a reduction of up to 5–6% in the demand for fossil fuels used in power generation in dry years. However, despite the ambitious goals proposed here, bioenergy alone cannot significantly reduce emissions by