BEForeGAN: An image-based deep generative approach for day-ahead forecasting of building HVAC energy consumption

• Published in: Applied energy 2024-12, Vol.376, p.124196, Article 124196
• Main Authors: Ma, Yichuan X., Yeung, Lawrence K.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Building energy consumption; Data-driven prediction; Generative adversarial network; Generative AI; Gramian angular field; Machine learning; Short-term prediction
• ISSN: 0306-2619
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124196

This study presents a pioneering approach in building energy forecasting by introducing a novel reformulation framework that transforms the forecasting task into an image inpainting problem. Based upon the fundamental notion that “forecasting is about generating data of the future”, we propose BEForeGAN, an innovative deep generative approach for day-ahead Building HVAC Energy consumption Forecasting based on multi-channel conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with U-Net generators. Our method is evaluated using 96,360 hourly HVAC energy consumption records from 11 buildings, demonstrating significant accuracy improvements of 17%∼76% and a substantial variability reduction of 3%∼96% compared to a suite of conventional and deep learning benchmark models across individual-building and zero-shot cross-building forecasting tasks. Notably, BEForeGAN exhibits robustness to noisy inputs, with an increase below 3% in Coefficient of Variation of Root Mean Square Error (CV-RMSE) for each 10% noise increment. This study addresses critical gaps in existing literature by showcasing the untapped potential of GANs as standalone forecasters, advocating for further exploration of two-dimensional (2D) GAN-based methods in building energy forecasting, and emphasising the need for more studies focusing on cross-building forecasting tasks. In conclusion, our findings underscore the transformative impact of GANs in revolutionising building energy forecasting practices, paving the way for enhanced energy-efficient building management and beyond. •Building energy forecasting is reformulated as a conditional generative problem.•Generative adversarial networks (GANs) are used as standalone energy forecasters.•Bijective image encoding is leveraged for 2D representation of energy time-series.•BEForeGAN improved day-ahead accuracy by 17%∼76% compared to benchmark models.•Model generalisability/robustness under zero-shot/noisy conditions were studied.