Early climate change indicators in the Arctic: A geographical perspective

• Published in: Applied geography (Sevenoaks) 2021-10, Vol.135, p.102562, Article 102562
• Main Authors: Ritchie, Michelle, Frazier, Tim, Johansen, Harley, Wood, Erik
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate adaptation; Climate change; GIS; Polar geography; Risk perception; Vulnerable populations
• ISSN: 0143-6228; 1873-7730
• DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2021.102562

Climate change is continuing to impact the social-ecological systems of polar regions. Climate models project substantial warming above the global average and high rates of environmental change in polar regions, but local impacts remain uncertain. These rapid alterations will affect biophysical, economic, and sociocultural conditions. This research aims to uncover early climate change indicators through climate model projections and individuals' perceptions by focusing on a sample of 39 municipalities north of the Arctic Circle in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and northwestern Russia. The study employs an exploratory sequential approach by combining representations of climate model projections in a geographic information system (GIS) with qualitative analysis from semi-structured interviews with local officials involved in planning decisions for each municipality. And, second, the study combined perceptions of early climate change indicators and their subsequent challenges and opportunities with regional climate projections. Results indicate an overall geographic ‘match’ between climate model projections and perceptions, but differences between north-to-south, coast-to-interior, and national perspectives are notable. Some of these differences point to the roles of nationally, regionally, and locally embedded geographies, producing a multitude of lived experiences. The implications of this study are relevant to global communities experiencing varying climate change risk perception from coastal-versus-interior regions. •Overall, regional climate model projections match local climate change perceptions.•However, perceptions of climate change indicators vary across space and place.•Climate change indicators reveal potential for substantial, continued socioecological impacts.