A simplified HF radio channel forecasting model. Case study

•Simplified forecasting model to predict electron density profile the one day ahead was proposed.•Prediction method is based on analysis of time series of measured foF2 profile.•Prediction model was tested by comparing measured and simulated predicted vertical ionograms. This paper addresses the pro...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Advances in space research 2022-03, Vol.69 (6), p.2477-2488
Main Authors: Moskaleva, E.V., Zaalov, N.Y.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
foF2 forecasting model
HF wave propagation
Ionogram simulation
NIM-RT software
Vertical ionogram
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Summary:•Simplified forecasting model to predict electron density profile the one day ahead was proposed.•Prediction method is based on analysis of time series of measured foF2 profile.•Prediction model was tested by comparing measured and simulated predicted vertical ionograms. This paper addresses the problem of predicting the maximum electron density in the ionosphere related to the critical frequency (foF2) of the ionospheric F2 layer. The spatial dependence and temporal evolution of foF2 values define the behaviour of an HF propagation channel. This paper proposes the simplified forecasting model to predict electron density profile one day ahead. The prediction method is based on analysis of time series of measured foF2 profile. The data obtained from GIRO network database were used in investigation. Statistics of foF2 daily profile recorded by neighbouring ionosondes during 12 years were built. Comparisons between the observed and predicted vertical ionograms are presented to show the appropriateness of the proposed technique.
ISSN:0273-1177
1879-1948
DOI:10.1016/j.asr.2021.12.047