Evaluation of future storm surge risk in East Asia based on state-of-the-art climate change projection

• Published in: Coastal engineering (Amsterdam) 2014-01, Vol.83, p.65-71
• Main Authors: Yasuda, Tomohiro, Nakajo, Sota, Kim, SooYoul, Mase, Hajime, Mori, Nobuhito, Horsburgh, Kevin
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate change; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Engineering geology; Exact sciences and technology; Extreme value statistics; GCM; Marine and continental quaternary; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Storm surge; Surficial geology; Tropical cyclone
• ISSN: 0378-3839; 1872-7379
• DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.003

The present study evaluates future storm surge risk due to tropical cyclones (typhoons) in East Asia. A state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) outputs are employed as the driving force for simulating storm surges associated with the projected changes in climate. The reproducibility of tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics from the GCM in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) is confirmed by comparing with the observed best track data, and future typhoon changes were presented. Storm surge simulation is carried out for East Asia, with the finest nested domain on the Japanese coast. The probability of maximum storm surge heights with specified return periods is determined using extreme value statistics. We show a strong regional dependency on future changes of severe storm surges. •A high performance AGCM especially on tropical cyclone reproducibility is employed.•Future typhoon characteristic change is displayed.•The future changes in storm surge risk were evaluated quantitatively.