Implementation and validation of a multi-domain coastal hazard forecasting system in an open bay

• Published in: Coastal engineering (Amsterdam) 2018-04, Vol.134, p.212-228
• Main Authors: Valchev, Nikolay, Eftimova, Petya, Andreeva, Nataliya
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Delft-FEWS; Erosion; Flooding; Storms; Surge; Waves
• ISSN: 0378-3839; 1872-7379
• DOI: 10.1016/j.coastaleng.2017.08.008

European coasts are increasingly threatened by hazards related to low-probability and high-impact hydro-meteorological events. Uncertainties in hazard prediction and capabilities to cope with their impact lie in both future storm pattern and increasing coastal development. Therefore, adaptation to future conditions requires a re-evaluation of coastal Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) strategies and introduction of a more efficient mix of prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. The latter presumes that development of tools, which can manage the complex process of merging data and models and generate products on the current and expected hydro-and morpho-dynamic states of the coasts, such as forecasting system of flooding and erosion hazards at vulnerable coastal locations (hotspots), is of vital importance. Output of such system can be of an utmost value for coastal stakeholders and the entire coastal community. In response to these challenges, Delft-FEWS (Flood Early Warning System) provides a state-of-the-art framework for implementation of such system with vast capabilities to trigger the early warning process. In addition, this framework is highly customizable to the specific requirements of any individual coastal hotspot. Since its release, many Delft-FEWS based forecasting system related to inland flooding have been developed. In this paper, a set-up of Delft-FEWS based forecasting system for Varna Bay (Bulgaria) and a coastal hotspot, which includes a sandy beach and port infrastructure, is presented. The system output generated in hindcast mode is validated with available observations of surge levels, wave and morphodynamic parameters for a sequence of three short-duration and relatively weak storm events occurred during February 4–12, 2015. Generally, while a longer term system operation/validation is needed for the model skills to be affirmed, the results obtained indicate a reliable prediction of coastal hazards, thus giving a sound basis for estimation of hazard impact. •A Delft-FEWS based coastal hazard forecasting system for Varna Bay is implemented.•The system is validated with surge level, wave and morphodynamic data.•The good level of performance gives a suitable basis for estimation of onshore impact.•This innovative tool is regarded as effective preparedness measure in a DRR strategy.