Resilience assessment of the downstream oil supply chain considering the inventory strategy in extreme weather events

• Published in: Computers & chemical engineering 2022-07, Vol.163, p.107831, Article 107831
• Main Authors: Ni, Weilong, Liang, Yongtu, Li, Zhengbing, Liao, Qi, Cai, Siya, Wang, Bohong, Zhang, Haoran, Wang, Yi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Downstream oil supply chain; Extreme weather events; Primary distribution; Resilience; Scenario analysis
• ISSN: 0098-1354; 1873-4375
• DOI: 10.1016/j.compchemeng.2022.107831

•Develop a method to evaluate the resilience of the downstream oil supply chain.•Propose a strategy of increasing depot inventory to improve resilience.•Establish two indices to represent the resilience of the supply chain.•Conduct sensitivity analysis for the resilience of the supply chain under different scenarios. As climate change intensifies and extreme weather events occur more frequently, the uncertainties of demand, production and inventory will affect the operation and management of supply chains. In this paper, a systematic method for evaluating the resilience of the supply chain is proposed, which is applied to the demand side management of an actual downstream oil supply chain. According to the practical operation of the downstream oil supply chain, several scenarios such as disruption of refineries, shutdown of pipelines and increasing demand are defined. Then, two indices are introduced to make a quantitative resilience assessment for the studied downstream oil supply chain. The inventory strategy is also proposed and applied to different scenarios. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is used to make a comprehensive analysis with multiple scenarios. The results show that increasing the inventory of storage depots can improve the resilience of the supply chain by 2.67% to 14.83%. According to the sensitivity analysis for the failure rate and repair rate of each link, it is indicated that the resilience can be improved by 5.95% when the repair rate is doubled and be reduced to 16.04% when the repair rate is reduced by half.