Ensemble sensitivity analysis of an extreme rainfall event over the Himalayas in June 2013

• Published in: Dynamics of atmospheres and oceans 2021-03, Vol.93, p.101202, Article 101202
• Main Authors: George, Babitha, Kutty, Govindan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: EnKF; Extreme rainfall; Predictability; Synoptic and convective-scale processes; WRF
• ISSN: 0377-0265; 1872-6879
• DOI: 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101202

Ensemble sensitivity (shading) of 24-h accumulated precipitation averaged over the square box to the geopotential height at 500 hPa valid at 1200 UTC 16 June 2013. Contours (every 10 m) represents 500 hPa geopotential height. The black box depicts the region of response function used in the computations. The location of Uttarakhand is represented by a black dot. [Display omitted] •Forecast Sensitivity of an extreme rainfall event over Himalayas.•Higher ensemble sensitivity to precipitation near midtropospheric trough.•The initial condition error over the maximum sensitive region impacts precipitation.•ESA on convection-permitting ensembles indicates non-convective precipitation. Forecast Sensitivity of an extreme rainfall event over the Uttarakhand state located in the Western Himalayas is investigated through Ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis (ESA). ESA enables the assessment of forecast errors and its relation to the flow fields through linear regression approach. The ensembles are initialized from an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Data Assimilation in Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. ESA is then applied to evaluate the dynamics and predictability at two different days of the extreme precipitation episode. Results indicate that the precipitation forecast over Uttarakhand is sensitive to the mid-tropospheric trough and moisture fields for both the days, in general. The day 1 precipitation shows negative sensitivity to the trough over upstream regions of the storm location while in day 2, the sensitive region is found to be located over the southward intruded branch of the mid–tropospheric trough. Perturbations introduced in the initial conditions (IC) over the most sensitive region over the west of the storm location indicate significant variations in the forecast location of precipitation. IC perturbed experiments show that the perturbation amplitude is correlated linearly with predicted change in precipitation, which becomes nonlinear as the forecast length increases. ESA performed on convection-permitting ensembles show that precipitation over the Uttarakhand is mostly non-convective. However, when the location of the response function box is moved north-westward of the Uttarakhand, the sensitivity patterns show signs of convection.