Using the SECLAND model to project future land-use until 2050 under climate and socioeconomic change in the LTSER region Eisenwurzen (Austria)

• Published in: Ecological economics 2022-11, Vol.201, p.107559, Article 107559
• Main Authors: Egger, Claudine, Plutzar, Christoph, Mayer, Andreas, Dullinger, Iwona, Dullinger, Stefan, Essl, Franz, Gattringer, Andreas, Bohner, Andreas, Haberl, Helmut, Gaube, Veronika
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agent-based model; Climate change; Decision-making; Farming styles; Land-use change; LTSER Eisenwurzen
• ISSN: 0921-8009; 1873-6106
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2022.107559

Farmers in Europe act within guidelines set by agricultural programs, market demands and biophysical constraints. At the same time, they are social actors embedded in their respective family structures and individual lifestyles and preferences. We here present the socio-ecological land-use model SECLAND that provides an improved representation of the versatility in farmer's characteristics and subsequently its impact on land-use decision making. The model combines (1) an agent-based module (ABM) with farmers as agents whose intrinsic behavioural characteristics are represented via farming styles with (2) a probabilistic GIS-based forest regrowth module. We apply the model for the LTSER Eisenwurzen region in northern Austria to explore land-use patterns until the year 2050 under three different scenarios. Our results show the relevance of explicitly considering differences between the responses of individual farmers to changing framework conditions. In order to devise sustainable development paths for future agriculture, it is important to focus on farmers' well-being and recognize it as being equally important as economic success. •This paper provides the description of the bimodular SECLAND land-use model.•We depict the effect of intrinsic factors on farms decision-making.•We investigate the impact of socio-economic and climatic framework changes on land-use patterns.•We analyse intensity shifts, crop and forest type changes as well as forest transition.