Are environmental concerns deterring people from having children? Longitudinal evidence on births in the UK

• Published in: Ecological economics 2024-06, Vol.220, p.108184, Article 108184
• Main Authors: Powdthavee, Nattavudh, Oswald, Andrew J., Lockwood, Ben
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Child-bearing; Climate change; Environment; Fertility; Green
• ISSN: 0921-8009; 1873-6106
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2024.108184

Do ‘green’ environmental concerns – such as about biodiversity, climate change, pollution – deter citizens from having children? This paper reports the first longitudinal evidence consistent with that increasingly discussed hypothesis. It follows through time a random sample of thousands of initially childless men and women in the UK. The paper shows that those individuals who are committed to a green lifestyle are found to be substantially less likely to go on later to have offspring. Probit and Weibull survival models are estimated. The results are robust to controlling for people's age, education, income, marital status, mental health, life satisfaction, optimism, and physical health. The paper's key estimated effect-size is substantial. A person entirely unconcerned about environmental behaviour is estimated to be just over 50% more likely to go on to have a child than a deeply committed environmentalist. •Will fertility decline because humans become so concerned about environmental damage?•Using UK data on thousands of randomly selected young adults, we provide the first longitudinal evidence that those who have environmental concerns and act in a ‘green’ way go on to have fewer children.•The estimated effect-size is large.