Semi physical growth model of Lobesia botrana under laboratory conditions for Argentina’s Cuyo region

• Published in: Ecological modelling 2022-02, Vol.464, p.109803, Article 109803
• Main Authors: Aguirre-Zapata, Estefania, Morales, Humberto, Dagatti, Carla V., di Sciascio, Fernando, Amicarelli, Adriana N.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: European grape moth; FPBSM; Lobesia botrana; Mathematical modeling
• ISSN: 0304-3800; 1872-7026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109803

Lobesia botrana is a quarantine pest from Argentina and other countries in the world. It causes damage to the vine in its different growth stages leading to losses in wine production. To develop pest control strategies based on knowledge of the moth, different mathematical models can be found in specific literature to predict its biological cycle, establish its relationship with environmental variables, describe the voltinism of the pest, among others. Based on the proposed models, it is possible to establish a minimum temperature threshold considering the development of the moth and the number of degrees’ days (DD) that must be accumulated for there to be a change of stage. Many of these models are empirical. They are limited because they do not consider some variables such as growth and mortality rates, also they lack a conceptual basis. This makes that professionals or institutions interested in the development of decision support systems (DSS) may not use them. This also prevents them from being easily extrapolated to other regions of the world. In this work, a semi-physical model based on first principles (FPBSM) is proposed to describe how the different growth stages of the vine moth change quantitatively throughout its normal development time under controlled and specific laboratory conditions for the Cuyo region in Argentina. The proposed model, based on a white box structure, considers important parameters in the development of the moth, such as growth and mortality rates. Opposite to the models reported in the literature, the proposed model is conceptually more simple, easy to calculate or adjust, and Its parameters are interpretable in the model’s application context. The previous characteristics facilitate the proposal model’s use by sectors interested in the development of DSS systems. The reported mathematical model has been validated with experimental data for three different temperature conditions. [Display omitted] •The growth process description of Lobesia botrana is essential to predict the pest evolution in a particular region.•The work presents an original semi-physical model that provides good estimations for the grape moth growth process in the Argentina’s Cuyo region.•The model uses the physics of the first principles and, therefore, it is easily extrapolated to other wine regions.•The proposed model was validated with laboratory experimental data at three different temperature ranges.