Recoupled crop-livestock system can potentially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by over 40 % in China

• Published in: Environmental impact assessment review 2025-03, Vol.112, p.107756, Article 107756
• Main Authors: Cai, Ying, Zhang, Fan, Deng, Xiangzheng
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural greenhouse gas emissions; Lifecycle assessment; Recoupled crop-livestock system
• ISSN: 0195-9255
• DOI: 10.1016/j.eiar.2024.107756

This study evaluated the effectiveness of a recoupled crop-livestock system in reducing agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in China, relative to traditional baseline agricultural practices during the decade 2010–2019. Our analysis, which used a Life Cycle Assessment framework, revealed a substantial overall reduction in GHG emissions of 8.83 % from approximately 1667.34 to 1520.09 million tons of CO2 equivalent. The hypothetical transition to the recoupled system was associated with a striking 40 % reduction in emissions across various provinces, underscoring its potential as an effective strategy for mitigating GHG outputs within the agricultural sector. We also examined regional variations in the sources of collectible straw and manure and identified opportunities for optimizing resource management. Projections of various future scenarios indicated that the recoupled system consistently resulted in lower emissions in all scenarios, thus highlighting its importance in promoting sustainable agricultural practices. Our findings confirm that widespread implementation of recoupled crop and livestock management practices is a critical strategy for enabling China to achieve its environmental and agricultural sustainability goals. •An 8.83 % decrease in agricultural GHG emissions from 2010 to 2019 in China is found.•Machine learning boosts precision in predicting agricultural GHG emission reductions.•Recoupled system transition shows a 40 % emissions reduction across provinces.•Regional variations in straw and manure sources offer resource optimization chances.•Future scenarios consistently show lower emissions with the recoupled system.