Leaders, factions and the determinants of electoral success

• Published in: European Journal of Political Economy 2023-12, Vol.80, p.102450, Article 102450
• Main Authors: Crutzen, Benoît S.Y., Flamand, Sabine
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Electoral success; Factions; Intra-party politics; Leaders
• ISSN: 0176-2680; 1873-5703
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2023.102450

We model the internal game between the leader and the factions of a party, to study the effect of party leadership on the determinants of electoral success. Factions are of interest or of principle. The probability of winning the election is increasing in how close the party is to the median voter, the leader’s charisma, party coherence and the factions’ contributions. The leader offers both types of factions their favourite rewards in exchange for contributions. We show that party coherence and factions’ contributions are not necessarily increasing in the leader’s charisma and ideological proximity to factions. Further, we show that factions of interest constraint the party’s electoral strategy less than factions of principle. In particular, factions of interest always contribute more, are less of an obstacle towards achieving party coherence, and offer the party more freedom in its choice of the ideological location and charisma of the party leader. •We study the exchange between the leader and the factions of a party to understand the determinants of electoral success.•The leader is authority charismatic or not. Their ideology is that of the party. Factions are of interest or principle.•Voters value charismatic leaders, ideological proximity to leaders, intraparty coherence and factional contributions.•We show that factions of interest contribute more to party work and party coherence is easier to achieve with such factions.•The party tracks more easily the median voter’s position or the ideological location of factions if these are of interest.