An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method based on spatial-temporal attention graph convolutional model

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) 2024-04, Vol.293, p.130751, Article 130751
• Main Authors: Lv, Yunlong, Hu, Qin, Xu, Hang, Lin, Huiyao, Wu, Yufan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Attention mechanism; Renewable energy; Spatiotemporal correlation; Wind power forecasting
• ISSN: 0360-5442
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.130751

Accurate and robust wind power forecasting (WPF) is great significance to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power system and promote the transformation of low-carbon energy. However, the high randomness and intermittency of wind power bring great challenges when designing reliable forecasting models. In this paper, a novel spatial-temporal attention graph convolutional network model is proposed. Firstly, the spatial attention mechanism is used to aggregate and extract the spatial correlations of the raw wind power data. Secondly, the temporal attention mechanism is applied to capture the temporal correlations. Then, the extracted spatial-temporal correlations were put into the temporal convolution network and the spatial convolution network to further obtain the temporal and spatial dependencies. Finally, the wind power forecasting results is output through the full connection layer. The proposed method is verified by using wind power data from real wind farm in China. The experimental results reveal that the proposed depth spatiotemporal prediction model has more significant advantages than other advanced models in terms of prediction accuracy and stability. •The spatiotemporal attention mechanism is used to learn the dynamic spatiotemporal correlations.•The spatiotemporal convolution mechanism is applied to enhance feature extraction of wind power.•The proposed model can improve the accuracy of wind power prediction by experiments.•Real datasets from wind farm in China is employed for the modeling study.