The role of solar district heat in the energy transition of the German heating sector

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) 2024-11, Vol.310, p.133176, Article 133176
• Main Authors: Popovski, Eftim, Fleiter, Tobias, Ragwitz, Mario
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: District heating; Energy planning; Energy system analyses; Energy system modelling; Levelized cost of heat (LCOH); Solar thermal; Spatial analysis
• ISSN: 0360-5442
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133176

This study explores the integration of solar district heating (SDH) into German heating networks, focusing on the energy transition in the heating sector. Utilizing energyPRO software, 8410 scenario variations were analysed, considering collector areas ranging from 1000 to 200 000 m2 and thermal storage capacities from 0 to 100 000 m³. The research identifies the most cost-effective SDH system designs, with solar fractions between 11 % and 18 % and collector area/storage ratios between 4 and 6.7, resulting in levelized costs of heat (LCOH) between 45 and 64 €/MWh. The techno-economic potential of SDH in Germany is estimated at 17.6 TWh by using a spatial analysis model. The paper presents sensitivity analyses and preliminary design equations, contributing to a comprehensive understanding of SDH's role in decarbonizing the heating sector. By integrating spatial data analysis with energy system modeling, the study offers a novel methodological approach, providing insights into the technical and economic feasibility of SDH systems in Northern Germany and similar climatic regions. The findings aim to assist policymakers and decision-makers in evaluating the costs and dimensions of SDH systems based on local heat demands and influencing economic and technical factors. •Assessment of various SDH scenarios using a simulation model.•Equations for a preliminary design and costs of SDH systems.•The most cost-effective designs are for solar fractions between 11 % and 18 %.•The LCOH for the cost-effective designs varies from 45 to 64 €/MWh.•A techno-economic potential of 17.6 TWh is identified.