Assessing economies' resilience of international liquefied natural gas trade network in the presence of the ripple effect

• Published in: Energy (Oxford) 2024-12, Vol.313, p.133491, Article 133491
• Main Authors: Zhu, Min, Dong, Peiwu, Ju, Yanbing, Fu, Zhengtang
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Complex network; Impact indicator; Liquefied natural gas trade; Resilience assessment; Ripple effect
• ISSN: 0360-5442
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.133491

In the International Natural Gas Trade Network (INGTN), global trade disruptions are caused by fluctuations in major exporters' supply quantities, with economies' capacities for resistance and recovery being crucial. The resilience of economies within the INGTN is assessed using an indicator system based on robustness and recoverability. Economies are classified into four groups according to their robustness and recoverability thresholds. The results of simulations reveal that import volumes decrease significantly after the fifth step, with economies demonstrating higher robustness and recoverability experiencing smaller fluctuations. Economies with both high robustness and recoverability show the highest resilience, while those with both low thresholds exhibit the lowest. Among economies where one value is high and the other is low, those with higher recoverability show better resilience. These findings emphasize the importance of enhancing import competitiveness, particularly for economies with lower recoverability, to improve their ability to withstand external shocks. By applying these insights, economies can better prepare for and mitigate the impacts of supply shocks, thus maintaining stability in global trade. •The proposed resilience impact indicator system considers both robustness and recoverability performance.•The interruption and recovery thresholds of each economy are addressed in the ripple effect.•Economies with high robustness and recoverability demonstrate the best resilience.•Improving recoverability enhances resilience more than improving robustness.•Strengthening import competitiveness can enhance the resilience of economies effectively.