Projection of fuel cell electric vehicle demand reflecting the feedback effects between market conditions and market share affected by spatial factors

• Published in: Energy policy 2023-02, Vol.173, p.113385, Article 113385
• Main Authors: Ko, Sungmin, Shin, Jungwoo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Consumer preference; Demand forecasting; Discrete choice experiment; electric vehicles; energy policy; Fuel cell electric vehicle; fuel cells; hydrogen; infrastructure; Infrastructure distribution; Location optimization; market share; markets
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113385

The Korean government has planned policies to increase the penetration rate of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). Policy intervention has a positive effect on FCEV diffusion. Infrastructure distribution plays a significant role in accelerating penetration rate at the early stage of the market. Although inevitably differences exist in the accessibility of hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) by region due to various constraints, few studies have considered accessibility in detail. This study analyzes how policies that vary depending on time and space, including infrastructure distribution, impact demand for FCEVs. A multistage structure is employed in the analysis to reflect the influence of spatial factors. Vehicle preference is analyzed through a discrete choice experiment at the first stage. The second stage solves the location problem and predicts the market share of FCEVs by reflecting the feedback effect between FCEVs’ market share and the accessibility of HRSs through a loop structure. The results indicate that improving access to HRSs positively affects the initial stage of the market; however, after accessibility reaches a certain level, it no longer affects the market share. The subsidies for hydrogen refueling costs bring a relatively rapid change to the gradually increasing penetration rate of FCEVs. •A feedback effect exists between FCEVs' diffusion and infrastructure distribution.•Infrastructure accessibility affects the initial market share for FCEVs.•The consideration of access should change depending on market maturity.•Policy intervention accelerates the penetration rate of FCEVs.•Quantitative analysis may aid the understanding of FCEVs' diffusion policies.