Prediction of ultrafine particle number concentrations in urban environments by means of Gaussian process regression based on measurements of oxides of nitrogen

• Published in: Environmental modelling & software : with environment data news 2014-11, Vol.61, p.135-150
• Main Authors: Reggente, Matteo, Peters, Jan, Theunis, Jan, Van Poppel, Martine, Rademaker, Michael, Kumar, Prashant, De Baets, Bernard
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Animal, plant and microbial ecology; Applied ecology; Biological and medical sciences; Ecotoxicology, biological effects of pollution; Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology; Gaussian process regression; General aspects. Techniques; Methods and techniques (sampling, tagging, trapping, modelling...); Number distributions; Street canyon; Terrestrial environment, soil, air; Traffic emissions; Ultrafine particles; Urban air pollution
• ISSN: 1364-8152; 1873-6726
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.07.012

Gaussian process regression is used to predict ultrafine particle (UFP) number concentrations. We infer their number concentrations based on the concentrations of NO, NO2, CO and O3 at half hour and 5 min resolution. Because UFP number concentrations follow from a dynamic process, we have used a non-stationary kernel based on the addition of a linear and a rational quadratic kernel. Simultaneous measurements of UFP and gaseous pollutants were carried out during one month at three sampling locations situated within a 1 km2 area in a Belgian city, Antwerp. The method proposed provides accurate predictions when using NO and NO2 as covariates and less accurate predictions when using CO and O3. We have also evaluated the models for different training periods and we have found that a training period of at least seven days is suitable to let the models learn the UFP number concentration dynamics in different typologies of traffic. •Prediction of UFP number concentrations using Gaussian process regression.•Simultaneous measurement at three urban sites of NO/NO2 and UFP.•NO and NO2 are the inputs of the model; UFP is the target variable.•Similar model performance at three urban sites at 5 and 30 min resolution.