Slow adoption of EVs under a weak policy regime: Future scenarios of EVs development and diffusion in Iran

• Published in: Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies planning and futures studies, 2023-08, Vol.151, p.103196, Article 103196
• Main Authors: Fartash, Kiarash, Ghorbani, Amir, Bagheri, Mohammadhossein
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Electric vehicles; Government policy; Intuitive logics school; Iran; Oil-rich developing countries; Scenario planning
• ISSN: 0016-3287; 1873-6378
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2023.103196

Transportation sector is responsible for a considerable share of total energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Widespread electric vehicles (EVs) adoption is instrumental in achieving sustainability. This paper aims to elaborate the future scenarios of EVs development and diffusion in Iran by 2040. By adjusting the conventional intuitive logics school, to more efficiently engage public and private stakeholders and to enhace policy informing of the secenario planning results, we identified nine driving forces that shape the future of EVs. Our findings indicate that government policies and the maturity of EV technology development are the two axis of the scenario matrix and the most critical uncertainties. We outline four possible future scenarios for EVs development and diffusion. “EVs persistently struggle under the rule of non-EVs” is the probable scenario, while “EVs rule the streets” is the preferable scenario. This paper also discusses the neglected influence of oil-rich developing countries' context and efficiency of policies on the probable and preferable future scenarios of EVs in Iran. Our proposed scenarios shed light on the uncertainties of EVs development and diffusion, which policy-makers and firms in Iran and other developing countries need to consider in their future policies and strategies. Implications of this research can be helpful if transitioning from a fossil-based transportation system to a sustainable one is on the agenda of oil-rich countries beyond the prevalent political rhetorics toward EVs. •Proposing probable and preferable future scenarios of EVs in Iran 2040.•Identifying major driving forces shaping the future of EVs.•Government policies and regulations have a dichotomous effect on EVs development.•Context of oil-rich developing countries is a determining factor in EVs diffusion.•Adjusting conventional intuitive logics to make it more pragmatic.