Changes in the organizational field of Libraries in 2030

• Published in: Futures : the journal of policy, planning and futures studies planning and futures studies, 2024-03, Vol.157, p.103319, Article 103319
• Main Authors: Pauget, Bertrand, Tobelem, Jean-Michel, Grenier, Corinne
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Covid-19 crisis; Delphi method; Foresight analysis; Libraries; Organizational field
• ISSN: 0016-3287; 1873-6378
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2024.103319

The Knowledge Economy is sustained by a large and varied range of type of libraries (public-state or university library, private library…) whose missions and models of delivering services are increasingly challenging due to change in readings habits since many years, and more recently by the Covid-19 crisis. In such context, we look at this sector as an organizational field whose future we question in the light of social (in the habits of access and use of knowledge), technological and relational changes, and raising the following question: “how is the organizational field of libraries reconfiguring internationally and externally in 2030? ". We conduct a prospective study to look ahead to the expected evolution of libraries and the role they could continue to play to support education, culture, and economy (in 2030). We use the Delphi method in three steps (data collection, formulation of an initial set of projections from discussions with experts, interviews and focus-groups). We propose four scenarios, two of which are considered trend scenarios, extensions of current trends in which libraries are adapting to a changing environment. Our results show that, despite significant consequences, COVID-19 did not change the course of these two scenarios. The two other projections are seen as “disruptive” scenarios: one anticipates the marginalization of libraries, the other the breakdown of the library concept itself. We finally offer contributions to the organizational field literature.