Weathering the storm: Developing a user-centric weather forecast and warning system for Ireland

• Published in: International journal of disaster risk reduction 2023-06, Vol.91, p.103687, Article 103687
• Main Authors: Brown, Gavin D., Largey, Ann, McMullan, Caroline, Reilly, Niamh, Sahdev, Muskan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Protective action; Public confidence; Severe weather; Weather forecasts; Weather warnings
• ISSN: 2212-4209; 2212-4209
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103687

This paper appraises current usage and future weather service needs in Ireland. The data for this study were collected using a household preparedness questionnaire and focus groups with urban communities, rural dwellers, and marine users, farmers, students, and an island community. The questionnaire was used to collect data on weather warnings and preparedness following a category red severe weather warning. Data on participants’ need for weather forecasts and warnings, current and future weather service requirements, and the effectiveness of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS) were collected from the focus groups. Our analysis identifies the importance of accurate weather forecasts to the public and groups such as farmers as they plan their professional and private lives. Participants were aware of the weather warning system's color-coded structure, with the highest-level warnings considered most effective in capturing attention. Most participants spoke negatively about category yellow warnings, as they perceived them to be issued too frequently. Experience of warnings being issued and threats failing to materialize caused a minority of participants to ignore warnings and not take preparedness action. The professionalism of the NMHS was praised by focus group participants, and there was a high level of overall satisfaction with the quality of the national weather warning system (75.1% of survey participants were mostly or extremely satisfied). Opportunities to improve weather services included enhanced communication with service users, improved web and app interfaces, a move to probabilistic forecasting, and weather warnings that encompass calls to action.