Crowd dynamic-based model on the city-wide emergency transfer under catastrophic earthquakes

In this paper, a modelling framework that enables the assessment on the fatality risk of earthquake-impacted urban systems, by tracking the spatiotemporal evolution of the mass post-shock transfer following catastrophic earthquakes, has been proposed. A crowd dynamic-based model has been developed a...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of disaster risk reduction 2023-07, Vol.93, p.103777, Article 103777
Main Authors: Zhao, Taiyi, Wang, Jingquan, Sun, Li
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agent
Crowd dynamic
Earthquake hazard
Emergency transfer
Hospital system
Road network
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Summary:In this paper, a modelling framework that enables the assessment on the fatality risk of earthquake-impacted urban systems, by tracking the spatiotemporal evolution of the mass post-shock transfer following catastrophic earthquakes, has been proposed. A crowd dynamic-based model has been developed and incorporated into the framework, to examine the impact of the behaviour pattern of each injured inhabitant in need of hospitalization, on the transfer behaviour on the system-level. To examine its applicability, such a framework was applied to a real-world hospital system (HS) in Tangshan City, located in one of the most earthquake-prone zones of China. The corresponding outcome reveals that a prolonged lack of access to the emergency healthcare could emerge, when it comes to seismic scenarios with high magnitude. Meanwhile, it is also found that the uninterrupted information sharing can help to maximize the access of the local HS to the injured inhabitants in a much faster way, and ultimately, to reduce the fatality risk thereof, under seismic contingencies.
ISSN:2212-4209
2212-4209
DOI:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103777