Economic evaluation with uncertainty analysis using a Monte-Carlo simulation method for hydrogen production from high pressure PEM water electrolysis in Korea

• Published in: International journal of hydrogen energy 2017-09, Vol.42 (39), p.24612-24619
• Main Authors: Lee, Boreum, Heo, Juheon, Choi, Nak Heon, Moon, Changhwan, Moon, Sangbong, Lim, Hankwon
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Cost estimation; Economic evaluation; Monte-Carlo simulation method; PEM water electrolysis; Uncertainty analysis
• ISSN: 0360-3199; 1879-3487
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2017.08.033

Economic analysis with uncertainty analysis based on a Monte-Carlo simulation method was performed for hydrogen production from high pressure PEM water electrolysis targeting a hydrogen production capacity of 30 Nm3 h−1 in Korea. With key economic parameters obtained from sensitivity analysis (SA), a cumulative probability curve was constructed for a unit H2 production cost fully reflecting unpredictable price fluctuations in H2 production equipment, construction, electricity, and labor from ±10% to ±50%. In addition, economic analysis for a net present value (NPV) with uncertainty analysis for revenue (REV), fixed capital investment (FCI), and cost of manufacturing (COM) provided cumulative probability curves with different discount rates and more reliable NPVs (-$ 69,000 ∼$1,308,000) for high pressure PEM water electrolysis under development in Korea. This economic analysis based on uncertainty can serve as important economic indicators suitable for premature technology like high pressure PEM water electrolysis currently being in progress in Korea. •Economic evaluation with uncertainty was performed for PEM water electrolysis.•Cumulative probability curves were obtained for a unit H2 production cost and a NPV.•Uncertainty analysis showed H2 production costs of 14.98–17.60 $ kgH2−1.