Estimation of industrial emissions in a Latin American megacity under power matrix scenarios projected to the year 2050 implementing the LEAP model

• Published in: Journal of cleaner production 2021-06, Vol.303, p.126921, Article 126921
• Main Authors: Hernández, Karen Daniela, Fajardo, Oscar Arnulfo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Energy matrix; Greenhouse gases (GHG); Industrial air pollution; LEAP model
• ISSN: 0959-6526; 1879-1786
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126921

The current global economic model of industrialization has historically searched for indefinite growth without considering environmental impacts. Dependence on fossil fuels has caused degradation of the global air quality and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions increase. Colombia and specifically Bogotá is no exception to this problem, which is causing increasing concern about the negative impacts on its inhabitants. Due to the limitation of investigations contemplating the concentrations of pollutants produced by industries in the city, this study was developed in order to estimate the emissions of air pollutants from fixed sources in Bogotá D.C., projected to the year 2050 using the LEAP software. Under three scenarios, we estimated the variation of emissions for different assumptions of industrial energy matrixes, giving proposals for emissions reduction in the city. The results of the study show that for a Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, the emissions of PM10, NOx, SO2, CO2, CO and VOC’s in 2050 would increase by 31.39%, 2.50%, 21.42%, 26.22%, 35.04% and 41.84% compared to 2014 in the different industrial sectors analysed. On the other hand, the scenarios proposed for the reduction of emissions have a different behavior. In the Carbon Reduction (RC) scenario, PM10 and SO2 emissions in 2050 would decrease by 23.10% and 27.89% respectively, although CO2, NOx, CO and VOC’s would increase by 38.39%, 1.55%, 14.94% and 41.73%. Finally, the Mitigation scenario (MIT) showed a reduction in emissions of PM10, NOx, SO2, CO2, CO and VOC’s by 62.83%, 59.46%, 79.20%, 49.15%, 47.94% and 45.96% during the studied period. Additionally, an economic analysis was included for the proposed scenarios to be implemented. This study allows to conclude that the industries of Bogotá should begin to consider an increase in the fraction of electric energy in their productive activities to reduce emissions. This would stand as long as the power providers have implemented renewable technologies in their generation processes. [Display omitted] •Three scenarios under different energy matrixes are evaluated, BAU, Carbon Reduction and Mitigation.•The LEAP software allowed the development of an economic, energy and environmental model for Bogota.•In 2014, main manufacturing industries responsible for air pollution in Bogotá were mineral, food and textile manufacturing.•By 2050, metallurgical products, beverages and minerals will be the main industries responsible for air pollution in Bogo