Analysis of carbon emissions in urban building sector using multi-influence model

The building industry is a major energy-consumer and carbon-emitter worldwide. Energy with low carbon emissions is critical for decarbonizing the urban building sector. Early studies often showed how one or more factors affected carbon emissions, but frequently ignored how diverse urban building sub...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of cleaner production 2023-11, Vol.426, p.139130, Article 139130
Main Authors: Wei, Cun, Chen, Jian, Cong, Mingyang, Wu, Yaling, Huang, Shi, Zhou, Zhigang, Yang, Dayi, Liu, Jing
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Carbon emission
Carbon neutral
Heilongjiang
Renewable energy
Urban building
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Summary:The building industry is a major energy-consumer and carbon-emitter worldwide. Energy with low carbon emissions is critical for decarbonizing the urban building sector. Early studies often showed how one or more factors affected carbon emissions, but frequently ignored how diverse urban building subsystems varied in integrity, dynamism, and complexity. This study created a comprehensive and versatile carbon emission prediction system for the urban construction industry using the proposed Multi-influence Model of Urban Building Carbon-emission (MMUBC). Application of the model is demonstrated through a case study in Heilongjiang Province, China. The modeling results indicate that carbon emissions from urban buildings are projected to reach their peak before 2030, with a potential reduction of approximately 78% by 2060 compared with 2020 levels. Achieving early peak carbon emissions in the power generation and heating sectors appears to be feasible through increased use of renewable energy for heating. The scalability of the model allows for future implementation in larger regions of China and potential use for assessing CO2 emissions in urban buildings. With quantitative data, the model offers valuable support to policymakers implementing low-carbon strategies in the building sector. •A new model for accurately predicting future carbon emissions from urban buildings.•Investigation of the correlation between energy consumption and carbon emissions.•Analysis of the feasibility of achieving the carbon peak goal through a case study.•Guidance to the building industry for the development of more efficient low-carbon methods.
ISSN:0959-6526
1879-1786
DOI:10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.139130