Decarbonizing the European energy system in the absence of Russian gas: Hydrogen uptake and carbon capture developments in the power, heat and industry sectors

• Published in: Journal of cleaner production 2024-01, Vol.435, p.140473, Article 140473
• Main Authors: Durakovic, Goran, Zhang, Hongyu, Knudsen, Brage Rugstad, Tomasgard, Asgeir, del Granado, Pedro Crespo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: carbon; Carbon capture and storage; carbon sequestration; climate; coal; energy; Energy crisis; Energy transition; Europe; heat; Hydrogen; hydrogen production; natural gas; steel; Stochastic programming
• ISSN: 0959-6526; 1879-1786
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2023.140473

Hydrogen and carbon capture and storage are pivotal to decarbonize the European energy system in a broad range of pathway scenarios. Yet, their timely uptake in different sectors and distribution across countries are affected by supply options of renewable and fossil energy sources. Here, we analyse the decarbonization of the European energy system towards 2060, covering the power, heat, and industry sectors, and the change in use of hydrogen and carbon capture and storage in these sectors upon Europe’s decoupling from Russian gas. The results indicate that the use of gas is significantly reduced in the power sector, instead being replaced by coal with carbon capture and storage, and with a further expansion of renewable generators. Coal coupled with carbon capture and storage is also used in the steel sector as an intermediary step when Russian gas is neglected, before being fully decarbonized with hydrogen. Hydrogen production mostly relies on natural gas with carbon capture and storage until natural gas is scarce and costly at which time green hydrogen production increases sharply. The disruption of Russian gas imports has significant consequences on the decarbonization pathways for Europe, with local energy sources and carbon capture and storage becoming even more important. Given the highlighted importance of carbon capture and storage in reaching the climate targets, it is essential that policymakers ameliorate regulatory challenges related to these value chains. •CCS is instrumental in reaching European decarbonization goals.•Removal of Russian gas increases value of CCS.•Disconnection of Russian gas leads to faster CCS rollout.•Green hydrogen accounts for a larger share after removal of Russian gas.•Blue hydrogen is still cost-competitive without Russian gas.