Natural disasters and analysts' earnings forecasts

• Published in: Journal of corporate finance (Amsterdam, Netherlands) Netherlands), 2021-02, Vol.66, p.101860, Article 101860
• Main Authors: Kong, Dongmin, Lin, Zhiyang, Wang, Yanan, Xiang, Junyi
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Analyst forecasts; Earthquakes; Media attention; Natural disasters; Pessimism
• ISSN: 0929-1199; 1872-6313
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2020.101860

The effects of natural disasters on capital markets have been investigated by limited evidence even though these calamities bring considerable damages or loss of life. To fill this gap, we investigate the impacts of natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, on security analysts' earnings forecasts for affected firms in China. We obtain three key findings. First, analysts' optimism significantly decreases for firms located in neighborhood areas. Second, earthquakes do not significantly affect firm earnings and stock returns, thereby indicating that post-earthquake analyst pessimism is not based on rational judgment. Third, media attention promotes irrational pessimism among analysts, and post-earthquake pessimism is a result of heuristics bias attributable to psychological shocks. However, analysts correct the bias after initial irrational forecasts. Taken together, our findings contribute to the broader psychology and economics literature on the effects of natural disasters on analyst forecasts. •We investigate the impacts of natural disasters, particularly earthquakes, on security analysts' earnings forecasts.•Aanalysts' optimism significantly decreases for firms located in neighborhood areas.•Earthquakes do not significantly affect firm earnings and stock returns.•Post-earthquake pessimism is a result of heuristics bias attributable to psychological shocks.•We contribute to the broader psychology and economics literature on the economic consquences of natural disasters.