Copula-based risk evaluation of global meteorological drought in the 21st century based on CMIP5 multi-model ensemble projections

•Copula-based joint probability model of drought characteristics is developed.•Joint return period of drought characteristics is projected under RCPs globally.•Nonlinear response of drought risk changes to anthropogenic forcing is projected.•Large uncertainties in drought risk projections are found...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of hydrology (Amsterdam) 2021-07, Vol.598, p.126265, Article 126265
Main Authors: Wu, Chuanhao, J.-F. Yeh, Pat, Chen, Yi-Ying, Lv, Wenhan, Hu, Bill X., Huang, Guoru
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
CMIP5
Copula
Global projection
Joint return period
Meteorological droughts
SPI
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Summary:•Copula-based joint probability model of drought characteristics is developed.•Joint return period of drought characteristics is projected under RCPs globally.•Nonlinear response of drought risk changes to anthropogenic forcing is projected.•Large uncertainties in drought risk projections are found in northern Africa. Climate warming is expected to have significant impacts on the global hydrologic cycle, including changes in precipitation-induced extremes such as droughts. Using 28 CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs), this study presents a global-scale analysis of the joint return periods (T) of meteorological drought characteristics (duration D, severity S, and peak P) at the 6- and 12-month scales under the Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP4.5. The D, S, and P estimated based on the Runs theory are used to calculated from the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at the global 1° × 1° grids. Six marginal probability distributions are used to fit S, P and D, whereas three Archimedean copula functions (Clayton, GH and Frank) are used to estimate T for the paired drought characteristics (S-D, P-D and S-P). Large spatial variability is found globally in the best-fitted copulas for the paired drought characteristics, with the Frank (Frank and GH) of the largest global percentage for SPI6 (SPI12). Relative to the baseline (1971–2000), the T of the paired drought characteristics above the moderate drought (S > 1, P > 1 and D > 3) is projected to decrease mostly in North America and Asia (
ISSN:0022-1694
1879-2707
DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126265