Metal and energy price uncertainties and the global economy

• Published in: Journal of international money and finance 2024-05, Vol.143, p.103044, Article 103044
• Main Authors: Ponomareva, Natalia, Sheen, Jeffrey, Wang, Ben Zhe
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Energy price uncertainty; Forecast disagreement; Metal price uncertainty
• ISSN: 0261-5606
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103044

We construct novel monthly measures of energy and metal price uncertainty based on the one-year-ahead price forecast dispersion for twenty commodities. Using a simple VAR model, we show both metal and energy price uncertainty shocks are contractionary for the world economy, and these results are largely robust to a battery of alternative specifications. However, our results highlight the differences between metal and energy price uncertainties, both in terms of their propagation channels, as well as the driving forces behind them. Counterfactual analysis reveals that metal price uncertainty has a mainly direct impact on global economic activity while the impact of energy price uncertainty is indirectly mediated through global financial and economic uncertainties. Variance decomposition shows fluctuations of both metal and energy price uncertainties are mainly self-driven, however global financial uncertainty plays a significant role in driving metal price uncertainty in the short run while global economic activity uncertainty plays a significant role in driving energy price uncertainty in the medium to long run. •We construct novel measures of energy and metal price uncertainties.•Both uncertainty shocks are found to be contractionary for the world economy.•Metal price uncertainty has a mainly direct impact on global economic activities.•Energy price uncertainty has a mainly indirect impact through global financial and economic uncertainties.