The evolution of inflation expectations in Japan

• Published in: Journal of the Japanese and international economies 2017-12, Vol.46, p.53-68
• Main Authors: Hattori, Masazumi, Yetman, James
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Decay function; Deflation; Inflation expectations; Inflation targeting
• ISSN: 0889-1583; 1095-8681
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2017.09.001

•Estimated inflation anchors for forecasts of Japanese inflation have tended to rise in recent years.•Dispersion of estimated anchors across forecasters has also increased.•Inflation forecasts are more tightly pinned down by anchors than the past in Japan but less so than found elsewhere for Canada and the US.•Forecasters of Japanese inflation appear to display diverse views of the inflation process. We model inflation forecasts as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecasts made by individual professional forecasters for Japan, we find that the estimated anchors across forecasters have tended to rise in recent years, along with the dispersion in estimates across forecasters. Further, the degree to which these anchors pin down inflation expectations at longer horizons has increased, but remains considerably lower than found in a similar study of Canadian and US forecasters. Finally, the wide dispersion in estimated decay paths across forecasters points to a diverse set of views across forecasters about the inflation process in Japan. [Display omitted]