Global sea level rise scenarios adapted to the Finnish coast

• Published in: Journal of marine systems 2014-01, Vol.129, p.35-46
• Main Authors: Johansson, Milla M., Pellikka, Hilkka, Kahma, Kimmo K., Ruosteenoja, Kimmo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Baltic Sea; Finnish coast; Regional sea level rise; Sea level scenarios
• ISSN: 0924-7963; 1879-1573
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jmarsys.2012.08.007

We calculate scenarios for the mean sea level on the Finnish coast by combining the land uplift, wind-induced changes in the local sea level, and large-scale sea level rise due to changes in ocean density and circulation and melting of land-based ice. The wind-induced changes were estimated by utilising their correlation with the zonal geostrophic wind, which explains 84–89% of the observed interannual variability of sea level on the Finnish coast. Future scenarios were based on the geostrophic wind projections from nine global circulation models. Land uplift rates are 4.1–9.9mm/yr, determined from the observations after filtering out the wind-induced effect. A 26–155cm range for the global mean sea level rise up to 2100 was obtained by combining several recently published scenarios. This rise is geographically unevenly distributed, and on the Finnish coast it is estimated to be only 24–126cm. Relative sea level change in the Gulf of Finland in 2000–2100 is projected to be +29cm (−22 to +92cm). A change of −5cm (−66 to +65cm) is projected for the Bothnian Sea, and −27cm (−72 to +28cm) for the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.