Copula-based joint probabilistic model of earthquakes and rain for the failure assessment of masonry-adobe structures

• Published in: Journal of Building Engineering 2021-10, Vol.42, p.102821, Article 102821
• Main Authors: Dong, Zhi-Qian, Li, Gang, Lu, Guang-Hui, Song, Bo, Li, Hong-Nan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Copula-based joint probabilistic model; Earthquake; Failure risk assessment; Masonry-adobe structures; Multihazard
• ISSN: 2352-7102; 2352-7102
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jobe.2021.102821

Earthquakes are the most harmful natural hazard to engineering structures. During a rain event, the increased moisture content in the adobe walls of masonry-adobe composite structures may lead to short-term degradation in wall capacity. Neglecting this degradation will result in large errors in the risk assessment of structures subjected to an earthquake that occurs after a heavy rain. In this paper, marginal probability distribution models of the earthquake intensity and rain intensity were separately established based on a large amount of measured data for areas with frequent high-intensity rainfall events. A copula-based joint probabilistic model of earthquake intensity and rain intensity was proposed and subjected to a goodness-of-fit test to obtain the multihazard joint return period and annual exceedance probability. Additionally, a failure risk assessment method for masonry-adobe composite structures was proposed based on the multihazard joint probabilistic model and structural vulnerability analysis. The proposed method was used for the risk assessment of a single-story masonry-adobe composite structure. The results showed that the seismic failure probability of the structure was 142% higher when the rain-based degradation of the adobe wall was considered than when this degradation was neglected. Therefore, the accuracy of failure probability calculations for masonry-adobe composite structures can be improved by using the multihazard joint distribution. •A Copula based joint probabilistic model of earthquakes and rain was established.•The optimal Copula model of earthquakes and rain was evaluated.•The failure risk analysis method under multihazards of masonry-adobe structures was proposed.