Synthetic storms reconstruction for coastal floods risks assessment

• Published in: Journal of computational science 2015-07, Vol.9, p.112-117
• Main Authors: Kalyuzhnaya, Anna V., Visheratin, Alexander A., Dudko, Alexey, Nasonov, Denis, Boukhanovsky, Alexander V.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Coastal flood; Extreme natural phenomena; Multivariate extremes; Synthetic cyclone; Synthetic storm model
• ISSN: 1877-7503; 1877-7511
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jocs.2015.04.029

•A method to generate synthetic storms over the Baltic Sea is proposed.•Stochastic model based on the equal probability contours method is suggested to parameterize storm cyclones and synthesize coastal floods with certain occurrence.•Reconstructed extreme coastal floods are used for evaluation of related risks of operational flood protection in St. Petersburg. Coastal surge floods are extreme phenomena with low frequency of occurrence. In this paper, a combination of two approaches based on the stochastic model for multivariate extremes and the synthetic storm model was applied for coastal floods reconstruction in St. Petersburg. The stochastic model is based on multivariate distributions of cyclone’ parameters with the use of an equal probability contours method. The synthetic storm model was developed taking into account probability distributions of cyclone parameters. As a result, the synthetic cyclone generation mechanism (as an implementation) was proposed. Finally, reconstruction of the extreme coastal floods was used to investigate related risks based on the two stage ensemble of plan generation for protection barrier gate maneuvering as well as for the plan generation quality estimation.