Misplaced certainty and simple thinking

• Published in: Personality and individual differences 2024-10, Vol.228, p.112734, Article 112734
• Main Authors: Olcaysoy Okten, Irmak, Kiselev, Kirill, Oettingen, Gabriele
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Epistemic structures; Evaluations; Misplaced certainty; Simple thinking; Uncertainty
• ISSN: 0191-8869; 1873-3549
• DOI: 10.1016/j.paid.2024.112734

Research has mostly approached certainty as a universal remedy for uncertainty. Going beyond the dichotomy of certainty-uncertainty, five studies examined misplaced (unsubstantiated) certainty in relation to people's thinking in a simple way, namely, seeking what is easy to process and well-defined. Misplaced certainty predicted a preference for comparatively simpler speech (Study 1), simpler paintings (Kitsch; Study 2), and simpler evaluations of the world and of other people (Study 3). When experimentally induced, misplaced certainty fostered simpler evaluations of the world than well-placed (substantiated) certainty (Studies 4–5) and well-placed and misplaced uncertainty (Study 5). Misplaced certainty also fostered more epistemic threat than other epistemic structures. Epistemic threat, in turn, predicted simpler thinking. These findings suggest that when certainty is misplaced and thus threatening, it may preclude intellectual depth and sophistication. •We examined misplaced (unsubstantiated) certainty in relation to simple thinking.•It predicted a preference for simpler speech, art, and evaluations of others.•Findings were also robust when accounting for other epistemic structures.•When induced, misplaced certainty led to simpler evaluations than other structures.•Epistemic threat mediated the link between misplaced certainty and simple thinking.