Scaling laws from Brazilian state election results point out that, the candidate’s chance to win increases by investing more campaign efforts in smaller electorates

Scaling law behaviors have been emerging from many large-scale social phenomena, particularly from the different stages of an electoral process. We analyze here, the results from 78 second rounds of Brazilian elections for state governors and, we identified scale law relationships between valid vote...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Physica A 2023-06, Vol.619, p.128683, Article 128683
Main Authors: Cardoso, M., Souza, J.T.G., Neli, R.R., Souza, W.E.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Election results
Probability conservation
Scaling laws
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Summary:Scaling law behaviors have been emerging from many large-scale social phenomena, particularly from the different stages of an electoral process. We analyze here, the results from 78 second rounds of Brazilian elections for state governors and, we identified scale law relationships between valid votes and votes cast for each candidate. Furthermore, we verified a consistent linear trend for the relationship between the parameters of each adjustment. This result, together with the probability conservation over valid votes, made it possible for us to write the relationship between votes as a robust universal scale law model depending on a single parameter. A remarkable result provided by the model is that candidates who dedicate more campaign efforts in cities with smaller electorate have a greater chance of success. •Brazilian election results.•Probability conservation over valid votes.•Universal scale law model.
ISSN:0378-4371
1873-2119
DOI:10.1016/j.physa.2023.128683