Fastest marathon times achievable based on extreme value statistics

Marathons are one of the ultimate challenges of human endeavor. In this paper, we apply extreme value statistics to predict fastest marathon times achievable for ten marathons around the world and for both men and women. We concentrate on the theoretical minimum time for each gender at each venue, i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Physica A 2024-10, Vol.652, p.130069, Article 130069
Main Authors: Kebe, Malick, Nadarajah, Saralees
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Generalized extreme value distribution
Goodness of fit
Maximum likelihood
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Summary:Marathons are one of the ultimate challenges of human endeavor. In this paper, we apply extreme value statistics to predict fastest marathon times achievable for ten marathons around the world and for both men and women. We concentrate on the theoretical minimum time for each gender at each venue, irrespective of who runs there. Thus, we measure the potential of each marathon, not the actual performance of the runners. •Predictions of fastest marathon times achievable for ten marathons given;•The first manuscript applying extreme value statistics for a range of marathons.•Predictions are given for both genders.
ISSN:0378-4371
DOI:10.1016/j.physa.2024.130069